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      [雙語閱讀]中國緣何不愿重蹈日本匯率覆轍
          2009-12-07    作者:曾德金    來源:經濟參考報

          The perception in China is that revaluation ended the Japanese miracle
        Since the Bretton Woods system of ①fixed exchange rates collapsed in 1971,some of the most high-profile attempts at global co-ordination have involved trying to stabilise major currencies.But the mixed record of these ad hoc efforts gives reluctant countries such as China an excuse not to repeat them—C suggesting that,for now,the Group of 20 leading nations will struggle to even try to match the role played by its predecessors,the G5 and G7.
        After the collapse of Bretton Woods,some European countries attempted to manage their exchange rates against each other in the evocatively named“currency snake”,which hardened into a more formal system of fixed values and,eventually,the euro.
        Otherwise,however,currencies ②swung against each other,sometimes wildly,as the economic and monetary turmoil of the 1970s combined with high and volatile oil prices to push exchange rates around.
        The growing economic power of Japan,one of the first Asian export powerhouses,③raised concerns in the US about unfair currency valuations.
        In the Plaza and Louvre accords of 1985 and 1987,the G5(later G7)grouping of governments agreed first to ④weaken the dollar then to stabilise it,hoping to reduce the US current account imbalance,particularly against Japan.But though the dollar did weaken,America’s trade deficit remained a problem. Moreover,the exercise was blamed in Japan for helping create the financial and property bubbles of the late 1980s,as monetary policy had to be loosened to offset the effects of a rising yen.
        Two decades later,some are pushing for the 1980s movie to be remade with China taking the part of Japan and the G20 supplanting the G7.“Some international co-operation would be helpful in ⑤ensuring that exchange rates could play their role in rebalancing the world economy,”says Gerard Lyons,chief economist at Standard Chartered bank.
        But China seems recalcitrant. Yesterday Wen Jiabao,premier,made clear that European attempts to press Beijing into letting the renminbi rise would be no more effective than US efforts.“There is a perception in China that the currency revaluations of the 1980s ended the Japanese economic miracle,”says Mark Manger,an expert on political economy at the London School of Economics,“so they are very reluctant to ⑥follow suit.”

        譯文梗概

        中國緣何不愿重蹈日本匯率覆轍

        自1971年布雷頓森林體系之下的固定匯率制度崩潰以來,全球在協同經濟方面所做嘗試中,最引人矚目的舉措都涉及穩定主要貨幣匯率。但這些臨時舉措好壞參半,令中國等不太情愿的國家有理由不再重新嘗試。這意味著,就目前而言,20國集團(G20)哪怕只是試著與其前身五國集團(G5)或七國集團(G7)所扮演的角色大致相同,也將十分困難。 
        日本是亞洲最早的出口大國之一,其迅速增長的經濟實力,引發了美國對于貨幣估值有失公允的擔憂。
        在1985年廣場協定(Plaza Accord)和1987年盧浮宮協定(Louvre Accord)中,G5 (后來是G7)成員先是同意讓美元貶值,后來又決定穩定美元匯率,希望以此減少美國經常賬戶赤字,尤其是對日本的赤字。盡管美元的確貶值,但美國貿易逆差的問題依然存在。此外,日本國內則指責這種做法助長了20世紀80年代末的日本金融及房地產泡沫。
        20年之后,一些人正力圖讓上世紀80年代的影片重演,由中國扮演日本的角色,而G7則由G20來取代。“一定的國際協作,將有助于確保匯率在恢復全球經濟平衡方面發揮自己的作用,”渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)首席經濟學家杰拉德·萊昂斯表示。
        但中國似乎不愿從命。11月30日,中國國務院總理溫家寶明確表示,歐洲向北京施壓、要求人民幣升值的努力,不會比美國的努力更有效。
        “在中國有這樣一種看法,即上世紀80年代日元的升值,終結了日本的經濟奇跡。”倫敦政治經濟學院(LSE)政治經濟學專家馬克·曼格(Mark Manger)表示,“因此他們非常不愿意重蹈覆轍。”

        (文章來源:FT中文網)

        點評:
        ①fixed exchange rates固定匯率,與high-profile相反的是low-profile(意為“低調的、低姿態的”);currency和monetary都是指貨幣,前者是名詞,后者用作形容詞。
        ②swing本意是“擺動,搖動”的意思,在這里是指各種貨幣間的匯率的變動,A貨幣對B貨幣的匯率,介詞用against。
        ③raise concerns about…引發關于…的擔憂。
        ④關于貨幣價值的變化說法,常見的主要有這幾種:appreciate\strengthen或devalue\weaken the currency(dollar),升值、貶值;hoping……現在分詞短語作目的狀語;current account是指經常賬戶,與資本和金融賬戶capital and financial account一起構成一國國際收支平衡表(International Balance of Payments)的主要兩部分。相關的術語還有balance account結余,差額清算,決算賬戶;false account假賬。
        ⑤ensure vt.擔保,確保,在此相當于make certain that;rebalancing the world economy意為世界經濟再平衡,imbalance“失衡”。
        ⑥follow suit愿意是指在玩牌時出同花色的牌,該短語譯法靈活,可以表示照著做,如法炮制之意。在這里的意思是重蹈覆轍。

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