ASIAN BANKS WARY OF PROPERTY BUBBLES BUILDING-UP

    Residential property prices are rising across much of Asia，prompting fears of a real estate bubble. Apartments are selling for staggering prices，and central banks and finance ministries have begunto ①rein in property-related stimulus measures.
    Yet it seems only yesterday that prices were falling，giving rise to fears of a ②hard landing for property investors ③that could have destroyed huge amounts of personal wealth and delayed the recovery.
    In Hong Kong，for example，prices for apartments costing more than HK$10m(US$1.3m）fell 6.2 per cent in the third quarter of last year，according to Savills Research， which feared that luxury prices might fall by a further 40-45 per cent by the end of this year.
    As it turn sout，luxury apartment prices in Hong Kong are now 30 per cent above their low point in the fourth quarter of 2008，with prices up 14 per cent just between the second and third quarter this year in favoured neighbourhoods. Similarly in Singapore，prices for private homesrose 15.8 per cent in the third quarter from the second，the first such rise in more than a year.In China，prices are up 37 per cent year-on-year.
  So is Asia in the grip of a bubble or just enjoying a healthy reaction to excessive gloom and doom of the end of last year？ No one really knows， but some governments and central banks are taking limited pre-emptive action just in case.
    In Singapore， the government has shut down bank lending schemes that allowed buyers to defer mortgage payments on uncompleted developments， and hinted at land sales to increase supply. Tharman Shanmugaratnam， Singapore’s finance minister，told the Financial Times that these measures appeared to be having some effect， but it was not clear whether further action was needed. “It is worth watching very carefully，”hesaid.
    South Korea’s financial regulator has tightened rules on borrowing，and in Hong Kong the central bank has warned that low interest rates are not sustainable. It increased the required down-payment on homes costing more than HK$20m by a third， to 40 per cent.
    However， no country other than Australia—gripped by a China-fuelled commodity boom—has taken the step of raising benchmark interest rates to cool demand. That reluctance reflects fears that higher rates could choke off domestic recovery and push up Asian currencies against the US dollar， harming trade prospects.
    It also suggests central banks are not yet sufficiently sure that an asset price bubble is forming.
    Jim Rogers， the Singapore-based international investor，said there were clearly hot spots but no general region-wide bubble.
    “I would not think about buying in Hong Kong or Shanghai，but it is not so widespread that all of Asia is in some sort of ④property bubble，” Mr Rogers told the FT. “It may happen... but I don’t think it’s happening now.”
    Some observers go further，asserting that the bubble is an illusion. Matt Nacard， Tuck Yin Soong and Eva Lee， property analysts at Macquarie Research， say price growth is  likely to slow significantly next year because it has been largely a product of the ⑤stimulus measures introduced to fight off recession.
    Frederic Neumann， senior Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong，says policymakers will have to raise rates eventually from the extraordinarily low levels reached during the global financial crisis， but are right to hold their fire for now. “If left unaddressed， the current monetary set-up in Asia will ultimately blow abubble of mind-boggling size， but so far the train has not left the station，” MrNeumannsays.

    譯文梗概

    亞洲銀行警惕樓市泡沫

    亞洲許多地方住宅價格正在上漲，引發人們對樓市泡沫的擔憂。有些地方的公寓已賣到令人錯愕的價位，各國央行和財政部已開始收緊與房地產相關的刺激措施。
    然而，房地產價格仿佛昨天還在下降，這使人擔心樓市投資者可能面臨硬著陸，導致巨額個人財富蒸發，并推遲經濟復蘇。
    例如，根據第一太平戴維斯研究部(SavillsResearch)的數據，香港1000萬港幣(合130萬美元)以上公寓的價格在去年第三季度曾下跌6.2%。該機構當時擔心，豪宅樓價到今年底可能再下跌40%至45%。
    結果卻是，香港豪華公寓現在的價格比2008年末季的低位高出30%，在一些熱門地段，僅今年第三季度的價格水平就比第二季度高出14%。類似的情況也在新加坡出現，該國第三季度私人住宅的價格比第二季度高出15.8%，這是一年多來的首次上漲。在中國，樓市價格同比上漲37%。
    那么，亞洲究竟是已經籠罩在泡沫之下，還是對去年末過度悲觀的健康反應？沒有人真正知道答案，但一些國家的政府和央行正采取有限度的預防行動，以免局面失控。
    在新加坡，政府已叫停那些允許未完工樓盤的買家推遲按揭償付的銀行放貸方案，并暗示將出售更多土地以增加供應。
    不過，除澳大利亞(該國正在經歷由中國需求推動的大宗商品繁榮)以外，該地區內迄今還沒有一個國家為了抑制需求而采取提高基準利率的步驟。這種不情愿反映出官方的擔心，即利率上調可能扼殺國內復蘇，并推高亞洲貨幣對美元的匯率，從而損害本國的貿易前景。
    這種局面還表明，各國央行尚未充分確定資產價格泡沫正在形成。
    以新加坡為大本營的國際投資者吉姆·羅杰斯(JimRogers)表示，市場上有一些明顯的熱點，但不存在席卷整個亞洲的普遍泡沫。
    有些觀察人士更進一步，稱所謂的泡沫只是一個錯覺。
    匯豐(HSBC)駐香港的亞太區高級經濟學家范力民(FredericNeumann)表示，政策制定者最終將不得不上調利率，告別全球金融危機期間不尋常的低利率水平，但現在按兵不動是正確的。

（文章來源：FT中文網）

    點評

    ①rein相當于“control”，作名詞時，意味“韁繩”，可引申為“控制”的意思，作動詞時，意為“勒韁繩使(馬)停步，駕馭，控制”，非常形象地表達了“收緊刺激措施”的含義。②hard landing，硬著陸，與之相對應的是soft landing，軟著陸。③that could have destroyed huge amounts of personal wealth and delayed the recovery定語從句，先行詞是hardlanding，couldhavedestroyed這一虛擬結構表示“過去本能夠做某事卻未做”，意在表明人們對這種潛在破壞的擔憂。④property bubble即為房地產泡沫，還有real estate bubble，housing bubble等表達方式。⑤the stimulus measures introduced to fight off recession中的introducedtofightoffrecession為后置定語，相當于一個定語從句，即the stimulus measures that/which are introduced to fight off recession。