美國聯邦儲備委員會19日宣布，從4月起將月度資產購買規模從650億美元縮減至550億美元，同時調整有關聯邦基金利率的前瞻指引。

    美聯儲當天在結束貨幣政策例會后發表聲明說，1月以來的數據顯示美國經濟活動在寒冬季節有所放緩，這部分反映出不利天氣的影響。美聯儲決策機構聯邦公開市場委員會認為，美國整體經濟的潛在力量足夠支持就業市場持續改善。

    美聯儲決定，從4月起將長期國債的月度購買規模從350億美元降至300億美元，將抵押貸款支持證券的月度購買規模從300億美元降至250億美元。這樣一來，美聯儲月度資產購買規模將從此前的650億美元縮減至550億美元。

    在繼續削減月度購債規模的同時，美聯儲調整了有關短期利率走勢的前瞻指引，去掉了之前使用的失業率6.5%的參考值。聲明指出，在決定將目前接近于零的聯邦基金利率(即商業銀行間隔夜拆借利率)保持多長時間時，美聯儲將衡量一系列指標，包括勞動力市場狀況、通脹壓力和預期以及金融市場狀況，以衡量經濟在就業和通脹兩大政策目標上已取得和有望取得的進展。　

    美聯儲預計，在未來結束資產購買計劃之后，仍有必要把聯邦基金利率接近于零的水平保持相當一段時間。美聯儲還指出，即使在通脹和就業兩大指標接近政策目標的情況下，基于經濟表現，一段時間內仍有必要把聯邦基金利率保持在美聯儲所認為的長期正常水平以下。

    本次會議是美聯儲主席耶倫就任后主持的第一次貨幣政策例會。耶倫在會后的記者會上指出，有關利率前瞻指引的改變并不代表美聯儲政策意圖的改變，而是美聯儲順應經濟形勢變化所做的調整。

    美聯儲政策聲明全文（英文版）

    美聯儲2014年3月19日政策聲明全文（英文版）

    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment continued to advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

    Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

    The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

    The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

    To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

    When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

    With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the Committee has updated its forward guidance. The change in the Committee's guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee's policy intentions as set forth in its recent statements.

    Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

    Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who supported the sixth paragraph, but believed the fifth paragraph weakens the credibility of the Committee's commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target from below and fosters policy uncertainty that hinders economic activity.

    美聯儲政策聲明全文（中文版）

    美聯儲2014年3月19日政策聲明全文（中文版）

    自FOMC 1月份政策制定會議以來所收到的信息表明，冬季各月中經濟活動的增長速度有所放緩，部分反映了不利的天氣狀況。就業市場的各項指標表現不一，但整體上來看顯示出進一步的改善；但失業率仍舊維持在較高水平。家庭支出和企業固定投資繼續增長，但住房部門的復蘇進程則仍舊緩慢。財政政策正在限制經濟增長，但這種限制的程度正在減輕。通脹一直都低于FOMC的長期目標，但較長期通脹前景一直都保持穩定。

    FOMC正依據其法定使命來尋求培育最大程度上的就業和物價穩定性。FOMC預計，通過合適的政策融通性措施，經濟活動將以適度的步伐擴張，失業率將朝著FOMC判定為符合其雙重使命的水平逐步下降。FOMC認為，經濟前景和就業市場所面臨的風險已幾乎達到平衡。 FOMC還認識到，持續低于2%目標水平的通脹率可能給經濟表現帶來風險，未來將仔細監控通脹的形勢發展，以尋找中期內通脹率將朝著FOMC目標方向運動的證據。

    FOMC目前判斷，更廣泛經濟中擁有足夠的潛在力量，可為就業市場狀況正在進行中的改善提供支持。鑒于自FOMC引入現有資產購買計劃以來朝著最大就業方向所取得的累計進展以及到就業市場狀況前景的改善，FOMC決定進一步緩慢而有節奏地縮減資產購買計劃的規 模。

    從4月份開始，FOMC將以每個月250億美元的規模擴大其機構抵押貸款支持債券的持有量，而不是此前的每個月300億美元；同時將以每個月300億美元的規模擴大其長期美國國債的持有量，而不是此前的每個月350億美元。

    FOMC將維持現有的政策，將來自于所持機構債和機構抵押貸款支持債券的本金付款再投資到機構抵押貸款支持債券中去，以及在國債發售交易中對即將到期的美國國債進行展期。FOMC現已規模龐大且仍將增加的長期債券持有量應該會對長期利率造成下行壓力，對抵押貸款市場形成支撐，并有助于讓更廣泛的金融狀況變得更具融通性，從而應可促進更加強勁的經濟復蘇進程，有助于確保通脹率隨著時間的推移而達到最符合FOMC雙重使命的水平。

    FOMC將密切監控未來幾個月中有關經濟和金融形勢發展的信息。FOMC將繼續實施其購買美國國債和機構抵押貸款支持債券的計劃，并在合適的情況下動用其他政策工具，直到就業市場前景能在物價穩定的前提下實現重大改善時為止。

    如果未來的信息可對FOMC有關就業市場狀況正在改善、且通脹正朝著符合其長期目標的方向運動的預期形成廣泛支持，則FOMC很可能將在未來的政策會議上進一步采取緩慢而有節奏的措施以削減資產購買計劃的規模。但是，資產購買計劃并未處在一條預先設定好的 道路上，FOMC有關其規模的決定仍將取決于FOMC對就業市場及通脹前景的預期，以及對這種購買計劃很可能將帶來的效果及其成本的評估。

    為了支持朝著最大就業和物價穩定性的方向的繼續進展，FOMC今天重申此前的觀點，即貨幣政策的高度融通性立場仍舊是合適的。為了判定需在多長時間里保持目前為0到0.25%目標區間的聯邦基金利率，FOMC將對有關其最大就業和2%通脹目標的進展——包括已實現 進展和預計將有的進展——進行評估。這種評估將把一系列廣泛的信息考慮在內，包括有關就業市場狀況的指標、通脹壓力和通脹預期指標、以及有關金融發展的讀數等。

    基于對這些因素的評估，FOMC繼續預計，在資產購買計劃終結以后的很長時間里，繼續將聯邦基金利率維持在當前區間很可能仍將合適；尤其是，如果預期通脹率繼續低于FOMC的2%長期目標，并假設長期通脹預期仍很穩定的情況下就更是如此。

    當FOMC決定開始取消政策融通性措施時，將會采取平衡的舉措，這種舉措將符合其最大就業和保持2%通脹率的長期目標。FOMC目前預計，即使是在就業和通脹率均達到接近符合其雙重使命的水平以后，經濟狀況可能仍將在一段時間里有理由令FOMC把目標聯邦基金利率維持在較低水平，這一水平低于FOMC視為正常的長期水平。

    在失業率已經接近達到6.5%的形勢下，FOMC已對其前瞻指導進行了更新。FOMC前瞻指導的變動，并不意味著FOMC在最近以來的政策聲明中所闡釋的政策意圖發生了任何改變。

    在此次政策制定會議上投票支持FOMC貨幣政策行動的委員有：主席珍妮特-耶倫(Janet L. Yellen)、副主席威廉-杜德利(William C. Dudley)、理查德-費舍爾(Richard W. Fisher)、桑德拉-皮亞納托(Sandra Pianalto)、查爾斯-普羅索(Charles I. Plosser)、杰羅 姆-鮑威爾(Jerome H. Powell)、杰萊米-斯坦因(eremy C. Stein)和丹尼爾-塔魯洛(Daniel K. Tarullo)。

    納拉亞拉-柯薛拉柯塔(Narayana Kocherlakota)投票反對FOMC的貨幣政策行動，他對本聲明的第六段表示支持，但認為第五段將削弱FOMC有關讓通脹率從較低水平重返2%目標之承諾的可信度，并培育出將對經濟活動形成阻礙的政策不確定性。

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