<tt id="m0uk4"></tt>
  • 
    
    1. Sovereign Credit Risk Report The Republic of Kenya
      2010-12-06   作者:YU Guolong  來源:經濟參考網
       

      Rationale

      Dagong assigns “B” to both local and foreign currency long term sovereign credit ratings for the Republic of Kenya (hereinafter referred to as “Kenya”) based on comprehensive consideration of such factors as its government debt burden, financial and foreign exchange capabilities, as well as national management capacity, economic strength and financial strength.

      Increasingly higher cost in public sector wage level and debt interest payment in recent years has made it difficult for the government revenues to cover the expenditure, as a result the government can not maintain fiscal balance even after receiving external financial assistance; therefore, fiscal deficit and debt scale have showed a trend of gradual expanding. Rise in spending on development is the main reason for the increase of debt scale, Kenya Vision 2030 emphasizes on expansion of rural infrastructure investment, which means the central government will increase the scale of capital investment for a long period of time in the future. In view of the poor growth potential in fiscal revenues, it is expected that the budget deficit to GDP ratio will reach 6.8% in the fiscal year 2010/11; meanwhile, the government financing demand will rise more rapidly, it is expected that the total debt issuance will amount to 188 billion Euros in the fiscal year 2010/11, over the same period the relative proportion of total public debt will maintain a trend of slow rise as well.

      Although the assistance from international organizations has, to some extent, guaranteed the government's basic debt solvency; however, since it is difficult for the economic growth rate to return to the pre-crisis level and the deteriorating debt situation is continuing, therefore the future solvency of the country will be subject to certain constraints, which are focused on the following aspects:

      l  The national development strategy is clearly positioned and well implemented, but the future will remain subject to the unstable domestic factors; the consolidated dominant status in regional economy has contributed to continuing improvement in relations with international organizations, however domestic corruption may contain the progress in bilateral relations, thereby affecting the sustainability of external financing channel in the medium to long term.

      l  Short-term prospects for economic growth was hampered by multiple factors and it is difficult to return to the pre-crisis level, and unbalanced regional economic development will be the main restricting factor in future economic growth for a long-term time period.

      l  The financial system is relatively underdeveloped, which means a relatively insufficient support to the real economy, but still has great development potential; its sound financial regulation protects the financial system from external shocks, the possibility of generating contingent debt for the government is relatively low in the short-term.

      l  The revenue structure of over-reliance on taxes limits the improvement in financial strength, so the future revenue growth will be slightly weak. With the continuing financial incentives, fiscal deficits and government debt will remain a slow rise in the next few years.

      l  Resumption of the inflow of external capital can cover the current account deficit in substance, and maintain a slow increase of total foreign exchange reserves and the stable currency value; the stable external financing ensures the sustainability of external debt in short-and-medium-term, but in the long term it will still face political constraints

      Outlook

      Although the scale of deficit and debt in Kenya is still at a high level, but with the implementation of the new constitution, the government will gradually optimize the structure of financial expenditure in the future and form a more positive interaction with economic growth, therefore maintaining debt sustainability. In the medium to long term, Kenya still needs to bridge the domestic income distribution gap, thereby solving the deep-seated contradictions which pose the fundamental obstacle to economic growth. Although the smooth implementation of the 2030 Vision plan has created a favorable condition for it, however it is still subject to fluctuations in domestic political situation, the possibility of forced interruption can not be completely ruled out. In view of this, Dagong keeps the stable outlook for Kenya’s sovereign credit rating of both the local currency and foreign currency in the next 1-2 years.
        凡標注來源為“經濟參考報”或“經濟參考網”的所有文字、圖片、音視頻稿件,及電子雜志等數字媒體產品,版權均屬新華社經濟參考報社,未經書面授權,不得以任何形式發表使用。
       
      相關新聞:
       
      頻道精選:
      ·[財智]天價奇石開價過億元 誰是價格推手?·[財智]存款返現赤裸裸 銀行攬存大戰白熱化
      ·[思想]易憲容:央行揮動穩健貨幣政策大棒·[思想]陳曉彬:“民企參軍”將實現強軍富民
      ·[讀書]《五常學經濟》·[讀書]投資盡可逆向思維 做人恪守道德底線
       
      關于我們 | 版面設置 | 聯系我們 | 媒體刊例 | 友情鏈接
      經濟參考報社版權所有 本站所有新聞內容未經協議授權,禁止下載使用
      新聞線索提供熱線:010-63074375 63072334 報社地址:北京市宣武門西大街甲101號
      Copyright 2000-2010 XINHUANET.com All Rights Reserved.京ICP證010042號
      国产精品一区二区三区日韩_欧美一级a爱片免费观看一级_亚洲国产精品久久综合网_人妻中文字幕在线视频二区
      <tt id="m0uk4"></tt>
    2. 
      
      1. 曰本亚洲欧洲色A在线 | 亚洲欧美综合人成在线观看 | 亚洲中文字幕一区 | 新97碰碰新版国产 | 制服丝袜在线观看亚洲不卡 | 亚洲综合婷婷网 |